Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N19W 11N21W 6N22W 
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 10N34W SIX HOURS 
AGO HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 34W/35W
FROM 7N TO 13N. ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO 
THIS TROPICAL WAVE UNDOUBTEDLY IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN
32W AND 43W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N49W 12N50W 7N50W 
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N30W TO 
23N38W TO A 17N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N43W. SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 
48W AND 51W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CROSSING 
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N67W TO 15N68W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS BETWEEN 71W
AND 75W IS PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W TO THE 
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST...FROM HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 9N27W 10N34W 9N42W 10N44W 
AND 9N60W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA/THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SITUATION IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
CURVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. WARM CLOUD-TOP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIGHT AT THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
23N68W...CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N76W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10.5N IN COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 
80W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA...AND IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA ON 
THE WESTERN BORDER OF LAKE MARACAIBO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W 
AND 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO 
THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...JUST BARELY TOUCHING 
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...TOWARD THE NORTH 
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA 
HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W
AND 61W...FROM BERMUDA TOWARD SAINT LUCIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N72W TO THE
NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 
32N AND OUT OF THE AREA FOR THIS WRITTEN BULLETIN. A SURFACE
TROUGH AT 31/0900 UTC GOES FROM 32N69W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. A RAINFALL OBSERVATION OF 1.46 INCHES WAS 
REPORTED IN BERMUDA AT 31/0000 UTC. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N74W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO 
30N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N56W TO 27N57W TO A SECOND 
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N59W TO 17N61W JUST OFF THE 
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N35W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 29N38W TO 27N42W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N30W TO 23N38W TO A 17N38W 
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N43W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 
51W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT